European Development Cooperation to 2010 (with P Engel), ODIOverseas Development Institute (London) Working Paper 219 / ECDPM Discussion Paper 48, May 2003,also available in French

The paper sets out the agenda facing Europe under six different headings, and then introduces a scenario planning exercise. The six themes are: (a) the development landscape to 2010; (b) Europe in the world; (c) trade; (d) development and humanitarian aid; (e) politics and partnership; and (f) the architecture of development cooperation.

The scenario planning exercise identifies two key drivers of European development cooperation. The first is the depth of commitment to coherence, as opposed to independent policy-making by Member States. The second is the degree of commitment to the Millennium Development Goals, especially the goal of halving global poverty by 2015. The interaction of these drivers gives four possible scenarios for the future of Europe: (a) Greater coherence and coordination, and a greater commitment to poverty reduction. We call this ‘Integration’. (b) Greater commitment to poverty reduction, but with a lower commitment to Europe. We call this ‘Compartmentalisation’. (c) Greater commitment to Europe, but without a greater commitment to poverty reduction. We call this ‘Segmentation’. (d) A low commitment to both poverty reduction and Europe. We call this ‘Individualisation’.

The paper works through the aid, trade and political outcomes most likely to occur under each of these scenarios. It does not take sides. The four scenarios stand, for now, as independent imaginings of the future. However, the paper does conclude that there is an important job to do in preparing a structured discussion of options – both within Europe and with developing country partners. To use a currently fashionable phrase, we need a ‘road map’, indicating both stretches of clear motorway and the stretches where potholes predominate................. (see link in title for full article)